Editing Episode 613 (section)

== Bears Preview: Interview with Lorin Cox ==
Arif interviewed Lorin Cox — formerly of PFF (seven years, part-time), currently of Locked On Bears and Cox Sports 1 ("like Fox Sports 1, with a C," a tagline Cox was made to wait the entire episode to deploy) — ahead of the Vikings-Bears week two matchup.

=== PFF and Caleb Williams ===
The interview opened on the controversy around PFF grading Caleb Williams 22nd in week one despite him finishing third in EPA per dropback, fifth in passer rating, and third in success rate. The primary issue was a play nullified by offside: Williams threw a red-zone interception to a defensive lineman who appeared to be lined up offsides rather than jumping. PFF graded it minus-1.5; Sam Monson suggested minus-1.0 would have been more appropriate. Cox confirmed: the issue was less the individual play evaluations and more the conversion from PFF's plus/minus system to its 0–100 scale, which amplified small disagreements into a much larger final grade discrepancy. Williams' adjusted grade (correcting the two contested plays) would likely place him around 11th–13th, not 22nd. His percentage of positively graded plays was 17th; his percentage of negatively graded plays was 15th best. The play-by-play reality was a smart, decisive game built on checkdowns and completions rather than heroic throws, which the 0–100 conversion struggles to capture.

=== The Bears Offence ===
'''Offensive Line''': Braxton Jones at left tackle is a placeholder until Ozzy Chapilla (second-round pick, patellar tendon injury, returning ahead of any medically reasonable schedule) is ready to play. Jones is inconsistent and cannot anchor reliably but will not derail the game plan. Garrett Bradbury is a downgrade at centre from the retired Drew Dalman. Right tackle Darnell Wright dealing with a minor knee injury but expected to play. The line was assessed as clearly worse than last year but not bad.

'''Running Backs''': DeAndre Swift was extended during the week on what Cox described as fair market value. He is demonstrably better than during his Detroit years — getting downhill, taking available yards rather than bouncing outside, no longer the elusive-but-slow mystery that his speed metrics never fully explained. The Swift/Kesi Monongai pairing was discussed: Swift is more well-rounded, slightly better blocker and receiver out of the backfield; Monongai is more north-south, better contact balance, and — contrary to perception — pulled away for a 61-yard run, suggesting he is faster than people think while Swift is slower. Both have the opposite of their nominal reputations. Roschon Johnson was assessed as a bust from the fourth round.

'''Receivers''': Colston Loveland identified as the most important weapon — fast, athletic, a legitimate wide receiver alignment option, currently receiving linebacker and safety matchups that will narrow as the league adjusts. Luther Burden is the most explosive player with the ball in his hands. Jaidyn Alexis made the roster as a blocker who gets rewarded with end-zone targets — one catch, one yard, one touchdown in week one. Jaylen Coker and Ted McMillan were noted as genuinely good players held back by having Bryce Young delivering the ball.

'''Run Scheme''': The Bears were first in the NFL in outside zone percentage in week one — over 50% per Sumer Sports, with 75% zone overall per PFF. No inside zone. No power. No counter. Arif identified 291 rushing yards, 39 attempts, 7.5 yards per carry, and six rushing touchdowns against the Panthers. Cox noted the genius of the scheme is that it looks radically different to a defence on every snap despite being structurally identical: different formations, different alignments, different motion looks, wide receivers working back across the formation that could be jet sweeps, fake jet sweeps, play-action, or run-fits — all designed to make it impossible to just key on "outside zone, running right."

'''Caleb Williams vs. Brian Flores''': Williams was the second-most-blitzed quarterback in week one after Jordan Love. He graded slightly worse against the blitz than against non-blitz looks, partly attributed to zone coverage behind Panthers blitzes giving him no clean answer when his first read wasn't there. Cox noted his real improvement was decisiveness on checkdowns — a weakness last year — and the question for week two is whether he maintains that under Flores's specific brand of pressure or reverts. Arif flagged that Williams attempted the third-most deep balls in week one by volume despite the 55% blitz rate, and that the Vikings had been number one in the NFL in preventing deep shots last year. Ben Johnson's 5-1 record as coordinator/head coach against Flores was contextualised: the two games as Bears head coach were eighth and ninth in best defensive performances allowed across 52 Johnson-coached games, and Jared Goff understands the Flores defence in a way that is probably not easily transposed onto Williams.

'''MVP Odds''': Williams had jumped to second in MVP odds behind Josh Allen, ahead of Lamar Jackson. Cox: good value, not a confident pick. The award is narrative and momentum-driven; voter fatigue with Lamar and Allen exists; but if Chicago's formula keeps emphasising the run game, Goff never won an MVP in Detroit for the same reason.

'''Best Quarterback in the Division''': Cox: Caleb Williams for output and situation. Jared Goff in a vacuum, individually — better quarterback today, worse situation.

=== The Bears Defence ===
'''Missed Tackles''': 24.2% missed tackle rate in week one, second in the NFL behind Denver (26.1%). Nine of fifteen missed tackles were on receivers after the catch. TJ Edwards missed four — the most in a single game in his Bears career. Tyreek Stevenson missed three. Rookie Malik Muhammad missed three. Cox was not panicking but noted that missing tackles in man coverage compounds more severely than in zone, because there are fewer nearby defenders to clean up.

'''Pass Rush''': Bears were eighth worst in pass rush win rate. Pressure arrived late in plays, after quarterbacks had gone through one or two reads — valid pressure but not disruptive pressure. Montez Sweat, Austin Booker, Dio Odengbo ("motivated Dio Odengbo" was a Bears fan offseason meme that Odengbo himself has leaned into with a smile), Daniel Hardy. Neville Gallimore, Grady Jarrett (34, injured last year), Contavious Street (starting because the Bears traded Jervon Dexter for peanuts rather than extend him), and sixth-rounder Jordan Vandenberg — described by Arif as generating the kind of one-and-a-half-sack game in 2027 that will make people lose their minds. Former Viking James Lynch also in the rotation at both edge and defensive tackle.

'''Linebackers''': TJ Edwards and Devin Bush. Bush had at least one viral rep where a guard simply folded him backwards and he collapsed onto himself; PFF grades suggest he may have been the worst blitzing linebacker in the NFL in week one. Edwards is fine but missed four tackles. Cox assessed the linebacker room as the one supposedly reliable position group that did not look reliable.

'''Secondary''': Jalen Johnson (best training camp of his career, overly aggressive in week one, jumping routes, expected to correct), Tyreek Stevenson (the top concern against Justin Jefferson), Malik Muhammad II (best coverage performance week one of the three corners, also missed tackles), Dylan Thienemann at safety (first-round pick, Arif had noted him being mocked to the Vikings all offseason; Cox was high on him in the draft, assessed him as a safe floor pick with an unknown ceiling, gave up a touchdown on a play against Darren Waller that was flagged for OPI), Xavier Woods/Cam Lewis battling for the other safety spot. Kyler Gordon remains injured. Full health: a pretty good group. Current state: untested.

'''Special Teams''': Torrey Taylor, the fourth-round punter recruited as a weapon, forced a muffed punt via his banana ball spin technique, but the overall weapon promise remains undelivered. Cairo Santos hit two kickoffs short of the landing zone while apparently attempting a knuckleball technique. Bo Gardner from Georgia is the rookie long snapper. Cairo Santos described as reliable in the Hell League for not missing extra points.

=== Score Prediction ===
Cox reluctantly picked the Bears with low confidence, citing PTSD from week one last year when JJ McCarthy went full number nine in the fourth quarter. He assessed Kevin O'Connell and Brian Flores as a combination he trusted more than Ben Johnson and Dennis Allen, and noted the Vikings' quarterback volatility as the largest swing factor. He could not envision the Vikings starting 2-0 with Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz.